Though, if youve watched Kawhi recently, hes looked like second three-peat Michael Jordan. They needed 24 different starting lineups to get through 60 games. And who knows whats going to happen with Gary Payton II, a key cog from last seasons team that was reacquired but is dealing with an adductor injury. In five of the previous seven seasons, the eventual title winner came from the group of teams with 5 percent odds or better, so theres a decent chance we will be crowning one of those aforementioned squads next June though that doesnt narrow things down very much. 1' to Dubs beating Mavs. All rights reserved. Atlanta Hawks (36) The Nets remain hopeful New York City mayor Eric Adams will roll back the city's vaccination mandate, but nobody knows for sure if or when that will happen. Web 2022-23 NBA Championship odds. NBA playoff chase: Everything to know about 12 Eastern Conference contenders, KD stars with Booker in long-awaited Suns debut, LaMelo has surgery on right ankle, out for season, 'Felt like practice': Lillard, McCollum square off, Mitchell fights off injury, hangs 44 on Celts in loss, Embiid (sore left foot) misses win against Heat, Bulls hold on as Ivey's TO gaffe costs Pistons, Sources: Warriors eye Curry return next week, What NBA Finals runs from LeBron, Giannis can teach Jayson Tatum, NBA Power Rankings: Kevin Durant's return could rock the West, Meet the man scouring Nigeria for the next generation of NBA and NFL talent, Roundtable: Early takeaways from Kyrie Irving joining Luka Doncic in Dallas, NBA title and MVP bets for second half of season, What the NBA might look like without 75 years of baggage, Sign up now to unlock everything ESPN+ has to offer. The Cavaliers, like the Timberwolves, are projected to see improvement this season but not join the group of title contenders despite trading for a star (in their case, Donovan Mitchell). Pivot point for the rest of the season: Can the Raptors hold up? The distance between Joki and Luka Doni in second place is greater than the distance between Doni and the projected seventh-place player, Jimmy Butler. They also brought in Russell Westbrook after Utah bought him out. If fans are able to be in the stands by then, and Lowry is back, expect a big celebration for the championship-winning point guard's return. The team that was good enough to reach the Finals last season is mostly intact with Malcolm Brogdon and Muscala joining a strong bench unit alongside Derrick White and Grant Williams. If not, well, the floor might be bottomless. Teams like the Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers and Los Angeles Clippers will be in the mix again and you cant sleep on the defending champions Golden State Warriors or young and hungry Memphis Grizzlies. Naturally, those acquisitions created a torrent of new betting action in Dallas and Phoenix, reshaping the balance of power in the West. FiveThirtyEight gives the Warriors a 20% chance . (Im personally higher than our player projections are on Kuminga.). The NBA's Eastern Conference is deeper than it has been in decades, setting up what should be a wild sprint to the playoffs over the final seven weeks of the 2021-22 NBA regular season. Still, this +650 value will shrink (it was +800 a few weeks ago) if Denver continues to look like an elite squad. Defense wins championships. The Suns havent been able to weather the injury storm as well as the Celtics. The upshot of all of that? The big exception is the Nets, whose odds market imploded when the team spun off Durant and Irving. With Butler leading the way, and Adebayo, Kyle Lowry and P.J. Marcus Smart, Al Horford and Robert Williams, three of the keys to the Celtics top-rated defense last year, have missed chunks of the season. Will the Lakers miss the 2023 NBA Playoffs? And with that being said, Golden State would also have homecourt advantage over either the Heat and Celtics should the team advance. The Nuggets have the best record in theWestern Conferenceand have looked like one of the deepest teams in the NBA. Speaking of wildcards, who knows what to make of the Sixers. Washington has won three of its past five but is still waiting for Kristaps Porzingis to make his Wizards debut since he was traded to the team on Feb. 10. But when Las Vegas offers a bet on the Nets winning the championship at 7:1 odds, translated to a 12.5 percent likelihood of happening, that is NOT reflective of what they think will happen. Carter has reportedly left the combine after allegations of his role in a fatal car accident. He let his frustration out in a moment that will be remembered long after the season ends. The Suns were +1600 to hoist the Larry OBrien Trophy just one month ago, sliding to their lowest position since before the 2021 Finals appearance. This seems to be the approach taken by most Eastern Conference contenders. By Michael Salfino. The result is a Clippers team deep with effective role players that should be very dangerous in the Western Conference. According to FiveThirtyEight, Boston should be around +375, a mile off the market best price of . They have a 38% chance of returning to the NBA Finals, per FiveThirtyEight, and are +350 at most books to win a championship. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: 13%. Caesars title odds: +50000 The Nets had all kinds of drama surrounding them heading into the break after trading Harden -- and enduring an 11-game losing streak -- but they finally appeared to turn things around as they headed into the break having won two of three, which included a 28-point come-from-behind win against the Knicks. But by landing Kevin Durant in a trade deadline blockbuster, the Suns have the second-best odds of winning the NBA title. The Bucks came into the break as the Easts hottest team and have kept it going, extending their win streak to 15. But its now clear Sacramentos lofty position in the West is not a magic trick. The Nets were 8-to-1 to win the title at the end of January; now, theyre 150-to-1. Caesars title odds: +1100 One thing to watch: Boston's 3-point shooting. In the likely event (to me, at least) that Mobleys projection ends up being too pessimistic, Clevelands odds will certainly improve. Nikola Jokic, the reigning NBA MVP, isnt scoring at the same outrageous output as in years past, but the rest of the roster has stepped up. Nikola Jokic is the favorite to capture his third straight MVP award and the rest of the roster is healthy for the first time in forever, setting up what should be a deep playoff run for Denver. Understandably, the result is an NBA odds market that looks remarkably different now than it did just four weeks ago. Game metrics are on a 0-100 scale. Devin Booker and Chris Paul have both missed a lot of time and Phoenix sits at fourth in the West. Must-see game left on the schedule: Hawks at Hornets, March 16 (7 p.m. But the Wizards still have a shot at the play-in, despite losing Beal for the season. With Giannis avoiding serious injury, the Bucks seem poised to keep rolling down the stretch. The Suns were +1600 to hoist the Larry OBrien Trophy just one month ago, sliding to their lowest position since before the 2021 Finals appearance. *This post was completed before the conclusion of the Clippers and Warriors games went final Tuesday night. RAPTOR foresees a significant drop-off from that group of five teams to the Easts four play-in squads, as well as from the play-in group to the also-rans. The Celtics, if healthy, have an elite defense. Phoenix - which made the NBA Finals just two seasons ago without Durant - has been the more popular betting target of the two. Pivot point for the rest of the season: Atlanta starts with a tough slate after the break -- at Chicago, vs. Toronto, at Boston, vs. Chicago -- but at least the Hawks are trending in the right direction. Our final play-in team is the New York Knicks, who leapfrog past the Chicago Bulls thanks to: a) The as-yet-undetermined-length-of-time absence of Lonzo Ball; b) The addition of Jalen Brunson; and c) Our shortening of New Yorks rotation, which kept Immanuel Quickley, Quentin Grimes and Isaiah Hartenstein from receiving far too little projected playing time. How does Derrick Rose look after returning from ankle surgery? Much of the deadline drama focused on Western Conference teams adding key pieces and moving into the fray near the top of the odds board. Denver Nuggets (42) Something else worth monitoring: whether fans will be allowed in the building soon, as the Raptors have been playing in empty arenas for weeks now. Golden State Warriors (224) Were still early enough in the season for some solid value picks. The Celtics are on fire, and Tatum is near the top of theNBA MVP odds. Miami Heat (71) In are Eric Gordon, Bones Hyland, Mason Plumlee, and Russell Westbrook. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. The expectations were high after the Knicks surprised the league and vaulted to the fourth seed in the East last year, but they have come crashing down to earth in a season filled with inconsistency -- especially on the defensive end. Playoff and title projections: ET, NBA TV): Miami visits for the second time this season in what could be Kyle Lowry's first game back in Toronto since leaving after nine seasons this summer. Milwaukee Bucks (72) Steph Curry has only played in 38 games and is currently out of the lineup with multiple leg injuries. If youre hunting for long shots, theres plenty of interesting shuffling happening in the middle of the table. At +550, the Celtics implied probability to win with these odds is 15.38 percent. You make a bet like this far off in advance of the event, in this case, the team to win the championship. Even that might be a tad on the high side, but given how much evidence there is that Boston is better than Golden State on a neutral court, its not exactly unreasonable that the Celtics are favored here. The Jazz rank first by ESPN's BPI and Playoff BPI as well as FiveThirtyEight's ELO championship metric . And yet, with the Miami Heat currently in a blue state of mind, these next four weeks figure to go a long way toward determining whether it will be playoffs or play-in after the April 9 regular-season finale. Harrell has averaged 17.8 points and 7.5 rebounds on 65.1% shooting since being acquired at the deadline. Two days later, the Hornets topped the Los Angeles Lakers to improve to 28-22 on the season. You can view updated NBA championship odds and more online sports betting opportunities at the BetMGM online sportsbook. Health (are you sensing a theme?) The Nets are still confident they can contend for a title this season, but the trade changed the team's course in the middle of a trying season in which they are still dealing with Durant's knee injury and Irving's part-time status. Must-see game left on the schedule: Nets at 76ers, March 10 (7:30 p.m. Playoff and title projections: I realize this is sort of a radical concept, but if a team is better during the regular season and better during the playoffs, it might just be better. About six percent of bettors at BetMGM favor Dallas to win the West. If youre a first-time NBA bettor, dont sweat it. If those players stay healthy, the Raptors have a chance to be a threat. Thats a core that NBA bettors really seem to like, too. After all, the last time Atlanta fired its coach in the middle of the season, it went to the Eastern Conference Finals. Can The NBAs Experimental Endgame Make It To Games That Count? Thats a dangerous upgrade for a team that made last years Western Conference Finals. NBA Championship Odds: Trade Deadline Shakes Up Betting Markets (March 1) Chase Kiddy breaks down how the NBA Trade Deadline has shaken up betting markets. src="https://www.facebook.com/tr?id=674090812743125&ev=PageView&noscript=1"/>. The Joel Embiid-James Harden duo has been excellent. They'll need a healthy Porzingis down the stretch. Chase Kiddy breaks down how the NBA Trade Deadline has shaken up betting markets. As of Feb. 26, the Lakers have a 40 percent chance of making the 2023 NBA Playoffs, according to FiveThirtyEight's projections . Weighted by the minutes played in the 2022 playoffs, the average Golden State player had 2,031 previous career postseason minutes, second among playoff teams behind only the Brooklyn Nets. March 1, 2023 10:56 AM. The East has been much more stable, as contenders seem content with the core rosters they assembled prior to the start of the season. But bettors may not mind the coaching shuffle. So this rematch should have a little extra edge. Calling a timeout in crunch-time when your team doesnt have one? FiveThirtyEight: Suns have a 56% chance to beat Hornets The site gives Charlotte a 44% shot at defeating Phoenix in the NBA game on Wednesday night. If you were to bet $100 on the Warriors to win the 2022-23NBA championship and it hits, youd get $700 your $100 is returned and youd get $600 in profit. The Kings have moved up 12 spots in the table since the beginning of the season and two from a month ago. But in 2022, most indicators from throughout the season suggest that the Celtics are genuinely a better team than the Warriors. FiveThirtyEight's 2022 NBA Finals prediction has Golden State with just a seven percent chance to win it all. Right now, sportsbooks have the Boston Celtics, owners of the best record in basketball and the defendingEastern Conference champions, as the favorites in the NBA Finals odds for this season. KCP is knocking down 45 percent of his threes and fitting in to the Nuggets equal opportunity offense. Next, we should note that RAPTOR cannot exactly predict the degree to which a team will attempt to tank this season. Jalen Carters arrest warrant for reckless driving and racing, explained. Dallas is currently +1600 to win the championship a significant upgrade from +2500, where they were before the trade. Suddenly, the season has been infused with a massive burst of energy and excitement. Caesars' Eastern Conference odds: +50000 Most impactful moment during the season's first half: It came about two hours before the Feb. 10 trade deadline, when the 76ers and Nets completed the Ben Simmons-James Harden swap. Right now, the Bucks have allowed the sixth-fewest points in the league. Its common knowledge, of course, that sports are unpredictable -- especially in the volatile NBA where anything can happen in any game. Through it all, Klay Thompson has been playing at arguably an All-Star level, averaging 22.1 points a game while hoisting over 10 threes a game and hitting over 40 percent of them. As of February 21, about 14% of all Western Conference champion tickets at BetMGM were backing Phoenix; 10% of all NBA championship tickets were also on the Suns. With Simmons missing all season, the 76ers have overachieved thanks to what has been the best season of Embiid's career. Derrick White Doesn't Produce Like NBA Superstars. Odds & lines subject to change. RAPTOR does not contain a coaching adjustment, so there is no way for it to factor in the absence of Ime Udoka, who was suspended by the Celtics for a year after violating team policy by having an intimate relationship with a female member of the franchises staff. Brooklyn Nets: Yes (-2500) / No (+950) Despite trading Kyrie Irving and Kevin Durant, the Nets are getting very short odds to make the playoffs and FanDuel is offering +980 odds for them to miss the postseason. At the BetMGM online sportsbook, the Cleveland Cavaliers currently have more conference championship tickets and handle than any other team in the East. The Warriors feel like a sleeping giant which is probably why DK is giving them the eighth-best title odds despite Golden State being the current seventh seed. Adding Jae Crowder, whos looked good in three games after so much time off, could add another playoff-proven contributor to the rotation. So, what are we to make of the new-look Clippers? That wasnt necessarily the case for either team a few weeks ago. His 27.5 points per game in February ranks eighth among all players. Despite an eventful offseason that saw a solid effort in free agency contrasted by a scandal resulting in the firing of head coach Ime Udoka, the Cs seemed unwavered. Theyve had key players miss time throughout the season and still managed to have the leagues best record at the break though theyve since fallen behind red-hot Milwaukee. Giannis Antetokounmpo is nursing a right wrist injury, but Milwaukee reportedly dodged a bullet with the severity of that injury. FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR projects the following order for the NBA 's playoff seeds (title odds via Fanduel in parentheses).. Eastern Conference. A blockbuster NBA Trade Deadline delivered a dump truck of showstopping news, dramatically realigning team rosters and superstar affiliations. The Warriors have faced their fair share of doubters this season as theyve overcome adversity to reach their sixth Western Conference finals appearance in the last eight years. ET, TNT): What else could this be, when Simmons and the Nets come to Wells Fargo Center to face Embiid, Harden and the 76ers? If and when any of them are dealt, that will be accounted for. If so, the Nets are too good to be just a 45-win team. Values and rankings in key statistical categories for the Boston Celtics and Golden State Warriors during the 2021-22 NBA playoffs. Jrue Holiday (finally) was an All-Star again and Brook Lopez is aging like Benjamin Button. Continuity will be a factor too, but Durant could easily fit in to just about any team. His 27.5 points per game in February ranks eighth among all players. Caesars title odds: +3000 Three (the Denver Nuggets, Boston Celtics . Boston (+300) and Milwaukee (+500) have been two of the top contenders throughout the season, with a combined 18.9% of the NBA championship ticket market, and they remain in a strong position now. Pivot point for the rest of the season: What happens with Irving's playing time? Using this information to contravene any law or statute is prohibited. History tells us that the team with home-court advantage in the NBA Finals wins about 72 percent of the time, which would seem to confer a massive advantage on Golden State in this series. The Warriors regular-season projection is dragged down a bit by the poor ratings of James Wiseman and Jonathan Kuminga, both of whom are projected to be fixtures in the Warriors rotation. It was the first time since the end of December the Cavs have lost multiple games in a row. Elo ratings which power the pure Elo forecast are a measure of team strength based on head-to-head results, margin of victory and quality of opponent. The result is a Clippers team deep with effective role players that should be very dangerous in the Western Conference. FiveThirtyEight's chance of winning the Finals: < 0.1%. That's 3% clear of the next-strongest team, Phoenix. And then we come to the Los Angeles Lakers, who along with the Sacramento Kings are projected to finish several games back of play-in territory.2 Last season, our preseason Lakers projection caused a lot of consternation and was pretty much vindicated by how the season played out. Nets-Celtics, 7:30 p.m. 6 seed, though even the trade for Rudy Gobert did not get them into the group of teams with 5-percent title odds or better. ET, NBA TV): This game could be a preview of what's coming at some point in May. For further information on how to bet on NBA games, be sure to check out our guide to basketball betting. Most impactful moment during the season's first half: Charlotte is hoping the acquisition of center Montrezl Harrell can help turn things around. It would be extremely unusual for the Kings to snap a historic playoff drought by winning the title with virtually no playoff experience. 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