[49][47][46][2][48][51], By the fall of 2017 Bakish had restructured Viacom, replacing executives at nearly every company, including hiring Jim Gianopulos - formerly chairman and CEO of 20th Century Fox, as the new chairman and CEO of Paramount Pictures. He led the revitalization and evolution of Viacoms core businesses, returning the company to growth, and extending its leadership across multiplatform entertainment content, next-generation distribution and advertising. Deadline is a part of Penske Media Corporation. We've also said that we are going to -- Paramount+ is going to launch with it, essentially as another form of hard bundle, a tier. And longer term, we remain focused on our goal of reaching over 100 million global D2C subscribers and generating at least $9 billion in D2C revenue by 2024. These risks and uncertainties are discussed in more detail in our filings with the SEC. ViacomCBS Thursday acknowledged that the company had conducted a review of a complaint by a former employee against CEO Bob Bakish but found no ground to support it. D2C OIBDA was a loss of $445 million in the quarter, reflecting the investments we are making in content, marketing and international expansion in support of what we believe is a compelling growth opportunity for Paramount. Carusos campaign appears to be taking a concerted strategy to discuss his Republican history as little as possible, largely declining to offer further clarity on his past views. All Rights Reserved. [21][18][22][12], In January 2007 Bakish became President of MTV Networks International (MTVNI),[23] with financial and management responsibility for MTVNI, overseeing all MTV Networks operations outside the U.S.[22] He immediately restructured MTVNI, cutting 8% of the workforce in addition to merging some overseas units with the UK business and devolving responsibilities for Latin American operations to new offices across the region. All told, the real estate developer has changed his party registration four times in the last 11 years, shifting twice between Republican and no party preference before re-registering as a Democrat about four months ago. Counties | CJ has a minority stake in it. But again, we're not just selling Pluto, we're selling a full range of streaming product and multiplatform product and having great traction with advertisers. Initially as Vice President of Planning and Development,[8] he became Senior Vice President of Planning, Development and But look back across his time in office and you find a majority of voters have given him good marks in every PPIC poll since January 2020, before pandemic concerns reached California. Only three other parties have ever had full status in California in the past quarter-century all three ultimately failed to retain enough registered voters. Ballotpedia uses one or more of the following sources to identify each officeholder's partisan affiliation: (1) direct communication from the officeholder, (2) current or previous candidacy for partisan office, or (3) identification of partisan . He also sits on the Board of Visitors at the School of Engineering and Applied Science at Columbia University. One, we're very pleased -- well, let's start with we definitely are viewing streaming as a global opportunity, and you're seeing us move against the international opportunity, particularly Western Europe, here in 2022. But new legislation could expand bus fleets, a policy shift that proponents say could curb absenteeism and narrow inequities. Read our privacy policy for more information. Its widely known that Caruso, who was a Republican for much of his life, switched his party registration to decline to state in 2011 while mulling over a run in the citys 2013 mayoral election. And the second is political. In fact, we've seen healthy double-digit growth in ad ARPU on the Essentials tier of Paramount+, despite some of the macro headwinds. Warmer storms could cause problems, SoCal winter storm exits with a bang: Icy downpours at Disneyland and 1,000-foot snow levels. All those have hard bundled elements, but again, have a broader distribution to penetrate broad distribution elements to parachute to TAM. In 2006, Ms. McHale worked with private equity firm Global Environment Fund to launch the GEF/Africa Growth Fund, an investment vehicle focused on supplying expansion capital to small and medium-sized enterprises that provide consumer goods and services in emerging African markets. So the combination of all those things will be key to delivering stable TV Media OIBDA. In the early stages of the pandemic, we were very selective with our releases, holding certain films until market conditions improve. Success like this, 5 #1 films at the box office, Top Gun, Scream, Jackass Forever, The Lost City and Sonic the Hedgehog 2, which, by the way, also made history as the biggest video game opening of all time. We wanted to learn more about him so we looked into his profile and list of accomplishments and we made some interesting discoveries. But Caruso offered more candor about his evolving political thinking during a meeting with an influential homeowners group in March. Prior to Oracle, Mr. Phillips was a Managing Director at Morgan Stanley in the Technology Group and served on its Board of Directors. Yes, let me just jump in here. as evidenced by sequential and year-over-year growth in titles viewed per active domestic subs. The once high-flying executive resigned in September of 2017 after allegations by multiple women and explosive press reports in the wake of the MeToo movement. [79][80][81] He was also Chairman of the Cable Television Advertising Bureau from 2003 to 2005. Some of today's financial remarks will focus on adjusted results. We leverage those assets across many platforms, and it's one of the reasons that we can grow faster, while spending less than others. So when Netflix published its Q2, it showed this chart that had minutes viewed, and I think CBS was actually #2 behind Netflix. The effort is also being led by former San Francisco state Sen. Quentin Kopp and former state Commerce Secretary Julie Meier Wright. if(document.getElementsByClassName("reference").length==0) if(document.getElementById('Footnotes')!==null) document.getElementById('Footnotes').parentNode.style.display = 'none'; What's on my ballot? Jerry Brown in 2014. Affiliate and subscription revenue grew 12% in the quarter. He and his wife Dee have two daughters together and they make their home in New York. Robert Bakish is the CEO and President of Viacom. Viacom is the parent company for several other large companies and there were failures and inconsistencies that were draining many of them. And we're just getting started. iSideWith.com may earn a portion of sales from products that are purchased through our site as part of our affiliate partnerships with retailers. Third point I'd make is this is a big year for Western Europe for us. And it's quite clear to me that we took share in this most recent upfront, There, we had digital volume up on the order of 30%. Fans are headed back to the theaters to watch our films. 5. Prior to that, he served as Executive Chairman of the board of Avis Budget Group from 2016 to 2018 and as its Chairman and Chief Executive Officer from 2006 to 2015, and also served as Chief Operating Officer from 2010 to 2015. Kasich dropped out of the race in May 2016, and Caruso did not vote in that years primary, according to county records. We need to give this a bit of time to play out. With the help of partners, Sky and CJ Entertainment, we just launched Paramount+ in the U.K., Ireland and South Korea. Mr. Nelson has extensive experience as a chief executive officer, chief financial officer and chief operating officer of major global companies, significant financial expertise, international business experience, public company and corporate governance experience and a long-standing background in the media industry. And then at TV Media, I think investors have been a little bit skeptical about the stable guide in OIBDA. In the past he was Chairman at Viacom 18 Media Pvt Ltd., Chairman of Cable Television Advertising Bureau, Inc . Paramount+ will also debut a criminal minds revival, building on what is already a fan favorite. So to your question of it being a price taker, sure, we play in the programmatic market. Turning to the balance sheet. Just wondering if you could talk in some more detail about the impacts of the macroeconomic environment that you're seeing in the business and particularly what you're seeing in terms of advertising demand across your own platforms. One, I mean, as you saw in Q2, we continue to see tremendous momentum in the direct-to-consumer business, whether you look at the growth on Paramount+ subs, what we're seeing in terms of churn, nice MAU growth and engagement growth at Pluto and most importantly, D2C revenue growth at very, very strong levels, 50% on a combined basis, well over 100% revenue growth at Paramount+. The first is, to what extent are you seeing any inflationary cost pressures in the business? Revenue grew 1% in Q2 as strong growth in content licensing was mostly offset by declines in advertising and affiliate revenue. It sounds like you're no longer targeting 60%-plus growth in D2C revenue this year. So what does that do? Such labels are called. Share. All rights reserved. He started with a thorough housecleaning operation. Get our latest storiesin the feed of your favorite networks. Ms. Beinecke is the Senior Partner of Hughes Hubbard & Reed LLP, a New York-based international law firm, and is known for her corporate governance and M&A expertise. Ballotpedia features 395,441 encyclopedic articles written and curated by our professional staff of editors, writers, and researchers. Campbells career in Republican politics ended in 2010 with a failed U.S. Senate primary campaign as his centrist Republican views were drowned out by the rise of the tea party movement and the eventual election of former President Trump in 2016. So very good supply side equation. And people of goodwill and good character can come to different conclusions on the same question.. In addition to boards within the entertainment industry that Robert Bakish serves on, hes a member of the Board of Overseers at Columbia Business School. Nominating and Governance Committee Member. It also serves as a company increasing its penetration of the most important growth market in media streaming, as evidenced by our over 5 million D2C subs added in the quarter. With an iconic Hollywood film studio that owns more than a century of IP, with the #1 broadcast network in the U.S., with some of the most popular cable brands and content in the world, with the fastest-growing premium streaming service in Paramount+, and with the leading free ad-supported streaming TV service in Pluto TV, it's a powerful combination, which we will continue to lean into for the rest of the year and well into the future. It is now a multinational retail corporation that runs chains of hypermarkets, discount department stores, and grocery stores. He was appointed to the board in 2016. This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Robert Bakish, president and CEO of Paramount, joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss its recent name change, earnings and how it will deal with increased competition. And we are -- despite some of the short-term headwinds, we continue to be very bullish about the potential for continued ad ARPU growth on our streaming services. I was wondering if you could give us color on IPL? He eventually became a partner within Booz Allen Hamiltons entertainment and media practice. In order to qualify for ballot placement, a party must meet certain requirements that vary from state to state. For more than 20 years, Ms. Griego oversaw the operations of Engine Co. No. When I was an independent, I was a centrist. Here are the five most liberal CEOs, according to the firm's rankings: 5. We want to hear from you! There are short-term challenges we got to just work through. We've got a broad offering. Sure, Brett. But what they have said is it's -- we obviously have the streaming rights there. She is a member of the Board of Trustees at Dana Farber Cancer Institute. She was part of the team that was a 2022 Pulitzer Prize finalist in breaking news for work covering a fatal shooting on the set of the film Rust. Previously, she was the author of the Essential California newsletter. Use of this site constitutes acceptance of our user agreement and privacy policy. We know how to do programmatic. [9] From 2001 through 2004, he was Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of advertising sales at MTV Networks. During his accomplished career in the financial services sector spanning more than 25 years, Mr. Terrell was responsible for Credit Suisses global banking relationships with some of its most high profile clients. Elections in 2023 | Legislated Equality. Search Terms: Robert Bakish Reset All Filters Page 1 of 1 Caruso spokesperson Peter Ragone said Caruso did not vote for Trump in 2016 but declined to say whether he voted for another candidate in the November 2016 presidential race. Mr. Terrell served as Executive Vice Chairman of Investment Banking and Capital Markets at Credit Suisse and later Senior Advisor from January 2018 to November 2018. It really has 3 fundamental components: hard bundle, plus channel stores like Roku and Amazon and Apple, and direct D2C on an O&O basis. And there, we're really the global part of the global tier to their local offering. But our amazing content isn't limited to the silver screen. By the time he was finished, the company was in much better condition and he had achieved several objectives for improving Viacom which earned him respect in the industry and accolades. That's right, the Wall Street banker who runs a firm . She is a native Angeleno. In the past he was Chairman at Viacom 18 Media Pvt Ltd., Chairman of Cable Television Advertising Bureau, Inc., President & Chief Executive Officer for Global Entertainment Group Plc, Executive Vice President-Operations of Viacom Enterprises, President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at Viacom, Inc., President & Chief Executive Officer of MTV Networks International, President & Chief Executive Officer for ViacomCBS Networks International, President for Viacom Media Networks, Inc. and Partner at Booz Allen Hamilton International (U.K.) Ltd. And is there a better level we should look at? Mr. Klieger is a Partner in the Los Angeles law firm Hueston Hennigan LLP. And then we have Germany and Austria and Switzerland with Sky in December, I believe, as well as France with CANAL+. So first, in terms of D2C revenue growth for the year, we continue to expect very healthy levels of D2C growth. It's really a marketplace dynamic that unfortunately, we're not immune to. Robert Bakins serves on multiple boards, The History of and Story Behind the Papa Johns Logo, 10 Things You Didnt Know about Paccar CEO Ronald E. Armstrong, 20 Things You Didnt Know about New Balance, 10 Things You Didnt Know about Ben Chestnut. We also expect to see continued meaningful contributions from the licensing side of that business, which is enabled by a combination of both an incredible catalog and unique production capabilities. Ms. Redstone earned a BS from Tufts University, and a JD and a Masters in Tax Law from Boston University. I want to remind you that certain statements made on this call are forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. And at the core of it, it's our differentiated as we say, playbook. So our content investment is definitely working. Filmed Entertainment OIBDA was $181 million, benefiting from the strong performance of our current year theatrical flights. That came back big in the upfront. The question on margins is really the core of what you're asking. That proved to be the right call. You will be redirected back to your article in, MastersFX Hires Industry Veteran Sandra Lindala To Run Studio Ops In Toronto And Vancouver, TikTok Introduces New Feature To Limit Screen Time For Teens, AMC CEO Adam Aron Defends New Sightline Ticket Pricing, Acknowledges Substantial Change To The Status Quo For U.S. Moviegoers, AMC Entertainment Q4 Sales Dip, Losses Widen; CEO Sees 2023 Recovery But Says Shareholders Must Approve Key Cash-Raising Measures, Daisy Ridley Leads The Better Liar Series In Works At Amazon From True Bloods Raelle Tucker, Krapopolis Renewed For Season 3 Ahead Of Premiere As Dan Harmon Toon Moves To 2023-24, Kristen Bell Leads Untitled Netflix Comedy From 20th TV Based On Erin Fosters Life, Exec Shuffle Ups Burke Magnus, Brings Rosalyn Durant Back After Disney Parks Stint. Thank you taking the time to join us for our second quarter 2022 earnings call. Bakishs leadership was integral to the successful merger of Viacom and CBS as he led the transformation efforts within the new company, combining two great cultures, formalizing a best-in-class leadership team and aligning the organization around strategic growth priorities centered on streaming. Despite short-term headwinds related to the macro environment, the value of our diversified business, and particularly our ability to monetize content across platforms and audiences, is becoming more clear than ever. And what will the margin profile of that business looks like? School districts | Try the political quiz. He has been President and CEO of Paramount Global since December 4, 2019, formerly holding the same position at Viacom before the merger with CBS Corporation. What did Disney actually lose from its Florida battle with DeSantis? And maybe just the way to think about this is, on a revenue basis, your linear TV business this quarter had $2 billion of advertising plus and Paramount+ was sort of in the $90 million range and Pluto at $265 million or so. Continued improvements in engagement and our compelling advertiser proposition mean that Pluto is well positioned to both gain share and benefit from organic growth. That hasnt happened very often, possibly because state election law strongly favors political parties. She began her career at Mobil Oil Corporation. Please check back soon. [44][36][45], In early 2017, Bakish laid out a five-point plan to turn Viacom around and return the company to steady profitability. Mr. Phillips earned a BS in Computer Science from the U.S. Air Force Academy, an MBA from Hampton University and a JD from New York Law School, and he is a member of the Georgia State Bar Association. And it's highly coveted by advertisers. Currently, he is President, Chief Executive Officer & Director at ViacomCBS, Inc. Mr. Bakish is also on the board of 5 other companies. As you know, we're -- our goal is to drive the growth on the D2C business to over $9 billion of revenue by the end of 2024. And so it will be a real engine for streaming, and then Paramount+ will benefit by being part of that, even though we're not directly investing on an O&O basis, we're obviously part of the joint venture. I believe you guys have some local productions, 4 language productions in the works? Good morning. Gary K. Hart, who served as Californias education secretary under Gov. To your question of is this Q2 only boost to subs? Campbell left the party that year, writing in a newspaper op-ed that a Republican embrace of Trump instead of a candidate for president worthy of our countrys past and its unbounded future would force him to re-register as an independent voter. Ms. Schuman spent seven years at Apple Computer, where she was Group Manager of Worldwide Product Marketing. But really, competition is nothing new. Interns wanted: Get paid to help ensure that every voter has unbiased election information. Part of the reason is that we don't just make popular content, we also make content popular by leveraging our powerful platforms. The last point, your local content, all those markets do have local content dimensions. So yes, there will be incremental options in the market. But hes got no climate plan, wins outright with more than 50% of the vote. Although Pluto TV revenue growth was impacted by the macro environment, the service continues to demonstrate strong engagement with the year-over-year growth rate in total viewing hours accelerating from Q1 to Q2. For example, in some states, a party may have to file a petition in order to qualify for ballot placement. And while macroeconomic conditions are likely to continue to affect advertising demand and impact TV Media financials, political advertising as well as price increases negotiated in this year's upfront, in combination with continued expense discipline, should help mitigate market-driven headwinds, particularly in Q4. We don't obviously guide to Pluto specifically. Please check back soon. CBS News also terminated Charlie Rose in 2017 as co-anchor of CBS This Morning and as a host of 60 Minutes on misconduct allegations by a number of women, from his time at CBS and earlier. I understand that submitting my email address allows iSideWith.com to send me important notifications via email. TV Media advertising declined 6% in the quarter as pricing growth only partially offset the impact of lower linear impressions and a 2% headwind from FX. Share. It's Naveen, I'll take both of those. Revenue grew 10% year-on-year. And we think that is a tremendous positive for the company and will be even more so as the macro situation improves. We also saw sequential growth in hours per act. But after the success of law-and-order centrist Eric Adams in last years New York City mayoral election, the way Angelenos vote next week will undoubtedly be seen as a barometer for broader Democratic appetites. But there are real reasons that we see this path to superior margins. So we're very excited about the future. Newsoms worst year in office, by this standard, was his first: Only 44% of adults surveyed approved of his work in polls conducted at the beginning and near the end of 2019. Nothing is certain except death, taxes and Rick Caruso is a Republican. Paramount Global (NASDAQ:PARA) Q2 2022 Earnings Conference Call August 4, 2022 8:30 AM ET, Robert Bakish - President, CEO & Directorr, Jessica Reif Ehrlich - Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Later this year, the biggest show on television, Yellowstone, returns for its fifth season to the Paramount Network in the U.S. and really a long track recordship of partnership and customer services with agencies and their clients. Yes. [65][66][67][68][69] In addition, later that June, Bakish announced that Viacom will produce some new series exclusively for Netflix, beginning with Nickelodeon-related content. This quarter, Paramount+ added 4.9 million global subscribers and revenue grew 120%, further cementing Paramount+ as one of the fastest-growing premium streaming services. Please disable your ad-blocker and refresh. MAUs are now at basically $70 million because we're getting great consumer traction and engagement, time spent, et cetera on Pluto continues to grow. So thanks for that color on the second half growth. We continue to look at how we optimize the tiering along with that, but it's part of a broader overall ARPU story. Our next question is from Kutgun Maral from RBC Capital Markets. | And then more broadly, one of the questions we get from investors as they think through the impact of inflation is pricing power. Filters. To attract the best partners and build the best business, you've also got to make it easy and efficient for advertisers to reach their audiences of choice. Good morning. She has represented numerous public and private entities and has served as counsel to their boards and independent trustees. Our next question comes from Bryan Kraft from Deutsche Bank. And therefore, we see sub growth not only coming from really engagement from the hard bundles where more and more people use it, but we also see those other 2 pillars of the distribution strategy beginning to kick in, and in fact, they already have. So I'd start by saying Pluto is the leader in fast in the U.S. And as you know, it's rapidly growing internationally as well. Bye-bye. As we wrote in December, Newsom seems to have the stage to himself after his resounding defeat of the recall. Q2 showed a company that it's taking market share in streaming, in broadcast, in box office and in upfront dollars. Robert Bakish - President and Chief Executive Officer Conference Call Participants Douglas Mitchelson - Credit Suisse Douglas Mitchelson All right. State and local courts | We haven't provided any kind of specific cadence of exactly what that looks like from year to year, but we're continuing to invest and manage the business with those goals. Those candidates tell me, No party preference after my name on the ballot sounds like I dont care. He also has a wife and kids. And I think we'll probably finish the year with very healthy revenue growth across the segment. In 1997, he was the Vice President of their Planning and Development and by the following January of 1998, he had been promote to their Senior Vice President of Planning and Business Development at their MTV Network, which is a subsidiary of the company. But nonetheless, we have experience, we have assets, we have relationships, and those provide real leverage, including in streaming. She previously served on the boards of Ralph Lauren Corporation, SeaWorld Entertainment, Inc., Host Hotel & Resorts, Inc., DigitalGlobe Inc., John Hancock Financial Services, Inc. and Potomac Electric Power Company. Learn how your comment data is processed. Caruso has typically dismissed criticism and most questions about his registration history. Prior to Barclays, Ms. Byrne worked at Lehman Brothers, where she was the first woman to serve as Vice Chairman. Viewers keep turning to our networks for their favorite content, and advertising partners are eager to get a share of it all. Moving forward, we'll continue to harness the strategy of ubiquitous distribution, which includes direct-to-consumer as well as channel partners like Roku, Amazon and Apple in addition to the aforementioned hard bundles so that Paramount+ can reach as large an audience as possible. And of course, we will continue to have a lot of innovation and discipline on the cost side of the equation, and that's true across programming, it's true across marketing, and it's true across our broader operations. That's tracking very well. How to run for office | We've long known what makes us the ideal advertising partner, our ability to deliver both scale and efficiency, all wrapped around premium content. Should someone be thinking otherwise, the most recent campaign finance report shows the governor has almost $25 million in the bank. Within a year of graduating with his MBA, Mr. Bakish was hired at the Booz Allen Hamilton company in 1990. We said at that time that, that would involve D2C content expense of around $6 billion. Menu Candidates > Robert Bakish > Ideology. Instead he hoped to reinvent the Democratic Party to go back to what it was, I think, 30 years ago, which was very much middle of the road.. June 2, 2022 2:27 PM PT. Ms. Griego has served, since 1986, as President and Chief Executive Officer of Griego Enterprises, Inc., a business management company. It's going to be part of a streaming offering for the Indian market, that Viacom18 is going to launch in 2023. Campbell's career in Republican politics ended in 2010 with a failed U.S. Senate primary campaign as his centrist Republican views were drowned out by . She also enjoys creative writing, content writing on nearly any topic (particularly business and lifestyle), because as a lifelong learner, she loves to do research and possess a high skill level in this area. So that's really the ad market. Frequent changes in voter registration could suggest that the candidate really doesnt have a core or that they are an opportunist, Sragow said. So you put all that together, and we do see a superior financial envelope at comparable level of scale to someone else. 2023 iSideWith.com. Many, many globally renowned franchises, backed up by a deep library, I mean the economic value of going and trying to replace that library, I don't even know what it would be. She is also Co-Founder and Managing Partner of Advancit Capital, an investment firm launched in 2011 that focuses on early stage companies at the intersection of media, entertainment and technology. And in terms of the question around the stability of TV Media earnings, as we said, we do expect the -- in the near term, there'll be some impact because of the macro advertising environment. State law requires a party to either circulate a petition seeking voter signatures or have enough voters directly submit registration documents to join the party. We were very selective with our releases, holding certain films until market conditions improve,. I 'll take both of those Entertainment and Media practice, Chairman of Television... Have the streaming rights there so thanks for that color on the half! First, in terms of D2C revenue growth for the Indian market, that would involve content! The race in may 2016, and researchers registration history terms of revenue! Booz Allen Hamiltons Entertainment and Media practice we think that is a Republican content.! An influential homeowners Group in March governor has almost $ 25 million in the works turning to networks..., the Wall Street banker who runs a firm Brothers, where she the..., Mr. Bakish was hired at the Booz Allen Hamiltons Entertainment and Media.. The first is, to what extent are you seeing any inflationary cost pressures the... Bit of time to join us for our second quarter 2022 earnings call improvements in engagement and our compelling proposition! Have been a little bit skeptical about the stable guide in OIBDA us color on the half! From products that are purchased through our site as part of the recall give a! Was an independent, I was a centrist homeowners Group in March that together and... 20 years, ms. Griego oversaw the operations of Engine Co. no, she was Group of. ] from 2001 through 2004, he was Executive Vice President and Chief Operating Officer of Griego,! Bus fleets, a business management company content, and we do see a superior financial envelope at comparable of. [ 9 ] from 2001 through 2004, he was also Chairman of Cable Television robert bakish political party! Our differentiated as we say, playbook forward-looking statements that involve risks and are. This is a partner within Booz Allen Hamilton robert bakish political party in 1990 political.! Criticism and most questions about his registration history has typically dismissed criticism and questions... Has served as counsel to their boards and independent Trustees that proponents could... Large companies and there were failures and inconsistencies that were draining many of them partners are eager to get share. Of graduating with his MBA, Mr. Bakish was hired at the School of Engineering and Science... To someone else, Newsom seems to have the streaming rights there and list accomplishments! Grew 1 % in the U.K., Ireland and South Korea is well positioned to both gain share and from... A bang: Icy downpours at Disneyland and 1,000-foot snow levels it, it 's going to be of... Commerce Secretary Julie Meier Wright are forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties to what are... 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