Earlier on Friday, Florida Gov. By using this website, you accept the terms of our Visitor Agreement and Privacy Policy, and understand your options regarding Ad Choices. [65], In Maine, the post-tropical remnants of Fay briefly spawned a waterspout over Baker Lake, which became an EF0 tornado once it moved ashore between Hiram and Naples on July 11, with minor damage to some trees and homes. It's moving west at 17mph.Scattered heavy showers and thunderstorms are reported over central Venezuela. Weather Prediction Center forecasts the probability that rainfall will exceed flash flood guidance within 25 miles of a point. [37] The storm also knocked down trees and power lines across eastern Pennsylvania. @nbc6 #nbc6 pic.twitter.com/vvAG4PCQVV. It only takes one storm hitting an area to cause a disaster, regardless of the overall activity for the season. Total economic losses from Fay in the United States exceeded US$220 million. Also in place is a more conducive AEJ. According to The Associated Press, forecasters said that the storm was on a track that could impact Cuba and South Florida next week. Heavy rainfall may affect North Florida, the Florida Panhandle and portions of the Southeast on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. All eyes are on Tropical Storm Ian that could impact the state of Florida next week. La Nia conditions are present at this time. The ACE index measures the combined intensity and duration of all tropical storms and hurricanes during the season. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. On the forecast track, Karl will be approaching the coast of Mexico within the watch area by Friday. Ron DeSantis amended his original state of emergency proclamation from 24 counties to include the entire state on Saturday afternoon. [34], While Fay was near peak intensity, its rainbands produced gale-force winds along the Delaware coast,[35] with sustained winds of 47mph (76km/h) and gusts as high as 57mph (92km/h) recorded near Long Neck. [59], An 18-year-old swimmer who rescued two of his friends from drowning eventually drowned in the ocean near Atlantic City. Early season (June-July) activity in general is not highly correlated with peak seasonal (August-November, ASON) activity. [6] On July10, the NHC extended the warning southward to Fenwick Island, Delaware, including the Delaware Bay. Your guide to preparing for the 2022 hurricane season in Florida, Atlantic hurricane season off to slow start. Tropical wave 3:A central Atlantic tropical wave ismoving west around 17mph. Heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding, with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, across portions of Veracruz and Tabasco states in Mexico. [1][67], In Vermont, post-tropical Fay brought rain showers across the state but there was no reports of damage. [2] A smaller-scale low pressure center formed within the disturbance, but before the feature could further consolidate, it moved inland near Panama City, Florida around 06:00 UTC on July 6. Residents on Friday were already flocking to stores to stock up on water, toilet paper, paper goods and canned food in anticipation of the storm, which is forecast to impact the west-central coast of Florida by Wednesday and could make landfall early the next day. Weather and subseasonal patterns that are unpredictable on seasonal time scales can sometimes develop and last for weeks or months, possibly affecting seasonal hurricane activity. They do not represent the total possible ranges of activity seen in past similar years. South Florida can expect lots of rain and occasional tropical storm gusts Monday-Wednesday. Update 11:02 a.m. EDT Sept. 24: Tropical Storm Ian is expected to rapidly strengthen to a hurricane by Sunday, with hurricane conditions expected in the Cayman Islands by Monday, the National Hurricane Center said in its 11 a.m. EDT advisory. In response to the strengthening storm, Cuba has issued a Hurricane Watch for the Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio and Artemisa. This would potentially result in a season with activity near the upper end of the forecast ranges. WebA hurricane watchers guide to the latest track and model forecasts during the 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Miami-Dade Mayor Daniella Levine Cava said Friday that it was time to make preparations. The official NOAA ENSO outlook from July of 2022 indicates a 62% chance of La Nia during the peak months (ASO) of the hurricane season, followed by a 36% chance of ENSO-neutral and only a 2% chance of El Nio. [63] On July 18, a fisherman off the Great Egg Harbor Inlet discovered the deceased body of the missing man. The governor's declaration frees up emergency protective funding and activates members of the Florida National Guard, his office said. A hurricane warning has been issued for Grand Cayman and Cuban provinces of Isla de Juventud, Pinar del Rio, and Artemisa where significant wind and storm surge impacts are expected. [7] On July 10, Fay strengthened throughout the day, reaching its peak intensity, with 1-minute sustained winds of 60mph (95km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 998 millibars (29.5inHg), despite some southwesterly wind shear. temperatures closer to normal than forecast model output from earlier in the year. Update 2:03 p.m. EDT Sept. 24: Hurricane warnings were issued for Grand Cayman as Tropical Storm Ian was projected to intensify into a hurricane on Sunday. Hurricane Conditions Possible in the Cayman Islands Early Monday. J. Manage Cookie Preferences | Do Not Sell My Information, Breaking News Team, Cox Media Group National Content Desk. The sixth named storm of the very active 2020 Atlantic hurricane season, Fay was the earliest sixth named storm on record in the basin when it formed on July9. Florida Gov. The updated 2022 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook is an official product of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC). Tropical Storm Ian 11 p.m. update. As storms strike, this interactive map is your guide to impacts and damage reports coming into National Weather Service stations nationwide. The season is expected to produce above-average numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes. A tropical storm watch has been issued for the Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas, according to the 11 p.m. advisory Saturday. Storm surge issued for parts of Florida along with Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches Fay's precursor disturbance was responsible for extensive rainfall and flash flooding in the Southeastern United States, especially within Georgia and South Carolina. Tropical Storm Ian formed over the Caribbean Sea on Friday evening, and Florida could feel the effects of the storm as soon as Tuesday as it is expected to intensify into a hurricane. https://t.co/tW4KeFW0gB. Various areas reported rainfall totals up to 7 inches (177.8mm) despite initial forecasts only showing rainfall totals as high as 3 inches (76.2mm). For example, one cannot know with certainty whether a given climate signal will be associated with several shorter-lived storms or fewer longer-lived storms with greater intensity. See NOAA definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons. [1][66] Despite the post-tropical cyclone passing over the state, rainfall totals did not exceed 1 inch (25.4mm) and there were no other reports of damage. The NMME based predictions for the SSTs in the Nio 3.4 region range from about -0.25C to -1.4C in September, with the most likely outcomes resulting in a moderate strength La Nia during August-September-October. Ron DeSantis on Friday declared a state of emergency in 24 of the states 67 counties. 2022. [18], United States President Donald Trump's rally in Portsmouth, New Hampshire was delayed. Tropical Storm Fay was the first tropical cyclone to make landfall in the U.S state of New Jersey since Hurricane Irene in 2011. [37] A trained spotter reported floodwaters near Gloucester City Middle School as deep as 24ft (0.61.2 m). [15][16][17] The entirety of Long Island was also placed under a flash flood warning. And look at ourspecial subscription offers here.. Maximum winds at the center of the storm remained at 45 mph. But top forecasters still expect above-normal activity, Since 2017, a ludicrous 101 named storms have formed. Hurricane Conditions Possible in the Cayman Islands Early Monday. Tropical Storm Watch, Storm Surge Warning, Storm Surge Watch; Storm Spaghetti Models. Track continues to stay west ok Key West, but as a powerful Cat 4. The counties included Hillsborough, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach, Polk, Sarasota and more. Such forecasts often have limited skill, especially when border-line El Nio or La Nia events are predicted. This wind shear caused the storm to entrain dry air, which gave it a non-classical tropical cyclone structure. The Tropical Storm Watch was issued for the lower Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge westward to Key West, including the Dry Tortugas. All rights reserved. At this time, forecasters are expecting Karl to run into environmental conditions that will inhibit development later in the week, preventing it from becoming a hurricane. The storm intensified, reaching its peak intensity on July 10, with maximum 1-minute sustained winds of 60mph (95km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 998 millibars (29.5inHg). Six people were killed by rip currents and flooding related to the storm. pressures are generally below normal across the MDR. Here's a guide to the percentage of power outages in each county. A slow drift to the south and south-southeast is expected to begin this evening and a faster generally southward motion is forecast by Thursday morning. WFTV reported that at 11 p.m. EST Tropical Storm Ian officially formed. [21] New York Governor Andrew Cuomo released a statement on July 9, urging New York State residents to stay alert and cautious, due to the impending severe weather conditions, highlighting a significant chance of flash flooding. [70], Tropical Storm Fay at peak intensity shortly before landfall in, List of United States tornadoes from May to July 2020 July 11 event, List of Maryland hurricanes (1950present), "Tropical Cyclone Report: Tropical Storm Fay", "Two-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook", "Tropical Depression Fay Intermediate Advisory Number 7A", "Post-Tropical Cyclone Fay Discussion Number 8", "WPC Surface Analysis valid for 07/12/2020 at 12 UTC", "Tropical Storm Fay Tropical Cyclone Update", "Maryland Weather: Tropical Storm Fay Forms; Flash Flood Watch For Parts Of Maryland", "Atlantic storm strengthens into Tropical Storm Fay, N.J. under tropical storm warning", "Tropical Storm Fay Brings Several Inches of Rain, Strong Winds, Flooding", "Tropical Storm Fay headed for LI; warning in effect, forecasters say", "Trump's New Hampshire Rally delayed because of Tropical Storm Fay", "Tropical Storm Fay brings rain, rough surf to Delaware; some beaches closed to swimming", "Heavy rain falling as Jersey Shore communities prepare for Tropical Storm Fay impact", "Windy, wet Tropical Storm Fay makes landfall near Atlantic City, New Jersey", "NYC EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ADVISES NEW YORKERS TO PREPARE FOR POTENTIAL EFFECTS OF TROPICAL STORM FAY", "Tropical Storm Fay Drenches the Mid-Atlantic, Northeast (RECAP)", "Event: Flash Flood in Richmond County, Georgia", "Event: Thunderstorm Wind in Ringgold, Georgia", "Low Pressure Is Likely to Form Into a Tropical or Subtropical Depression or Storm as it Spreads Rain Along East Coast", "Event: Flood in Frogmore, South Carolina", "Impressive rain at @HuntingIslandSP the last couple of days. Live Twitter feed and interactive tracking map of Hurricane Irma. Presented at AMS 33rd Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology, April 2018. As a result, it is not possible to reliably predict the number or intensity of landfalling storms in a seasonal outlook, or whether a given locality will be impacted by a hurricane this season. Therefore, residents, businesses, and government agencies of coastal and near-coastal regions are urged to prepare every hurricane season regardless of this, or any other, seasonal outlook. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the southwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). This interactive map, which contains data from January 1950, pinpoints where a cyclone touched down and traces its path of destruction. Learn about careers at Cox Media Group. All of South Florida is now out of the cone of concern, but Tropical Storm Ian is forecast to strengthen as it moves over the western Caribbean Sea and develop into a major hurricane in coming days, according to the National Hurricane Center in Miami. In fact, the monsoon rains have been well above average for several months, indicating an early start to the monsoon season as well. Updated daily from May 1 through Sept. 30. The activity during June and July 2022 was close to normal. The Nio 3.4 index has varied from -1.2C to -0.5C in the past few months, but has not shown any significant trends away from the La Nia range. "Now is the time to make sure that you have a hurricane plan in place. Will the impact align with historical impacts? His order stresses that there is risk for storm surge, flooding, dangerous winds and other weather conditions throughout the state. Here's the latest update from the NHC as of 11a.m. Oct. 12:. A subset of the models indicate ENSO-neutral, while most of the models favor La Nia. Residents in Cuba and Florida continue to monitor the storm. [1] On July 9, the thunderstorm activity of the low increased as it moved northeastward, parallel to the coast of North Carolina even as the system experienced a sudden slowing in its forward motion. [1] Rainfall in the state reached 6.97in (177mm) near Lewes. The outlook calls for a 60% chance of an above-normal season, followed by a 30% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. Matt Rosencrans, Physical Scientist; Matthew.Rosencrans{at}noaa.gov, Dr. Hui Wang, Physical Scientist; Hui.Wang{at}noaa.gov, Dr. Daniel Harnos, Meteorologist; Daniel.Harnos{at}noaa.gov, Eric Blake, Senior Hurricane Specialist; Eric.S.Blake{at}noaa.gov, Dr. Chris Landsea, Branch Chief; Chris.Landsea{at}noaa.gov, Dr. Richard Pasch, Senior Hurricane Specialist; Richard.J.Pasch{at}noaa.gov, Stanley Goldenberg, Meteorologist; Stanley.Goldenberg{at}noaa.gov. Rev., 112, 1649-1668. There is just a slight decrease in the probability of above-normal activity (65% reduced to 60%) and a slight increase in the chances for a near-normal season (25% increased to 30%) The forecast ranges for likely seasonal counts of named storms decreased by 1 on the upper end. Climate, 21, 3929 - 3935. Many of the recent model forecasts for SSTs in the MDR are for temperatures closer to normal than forecast model output from earlier in the year. [56] 18 residents in Newark, New Jersey had to be rescued from floodwaters by the Newark Fire Department, most of whom were stranded within their vehicles. A tropical storm watch is in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac. The updated 2022 outlook calls for a 70% probability for each of the following ranges of activity during the 2022 hurricane season, which officially runs from June 1st through November 30th: The activity is expected to fall within these ranges in 70% of seasons with similar climate conditions and uncertainties to those expected this year. NBC 6's Ryan Nelson reports, Copyright 2022 NBCUniversal Media, LLC. Our exclusive FOX MODEL, which is inline with the NHC is predicting, shows the model staying off to the west, with some outer rainband impacts to our southern viewing area as early as 10 p.m. Tuesday. The process for retiring 2021 storm names is not complete yet. Karl is moving toward the north near 3 mph,and this motion is expected to continue through today. Florida Gov. The dynamical model predictions come from the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFS), NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab (GFDL) HiFLOR-S and SPEAR-MED models, the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), the United Kingdom Met Office (UKMET) GloSea6 model, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) Seas5 model. Download your local site's app to ensure you're always connected to the news. The position of the AEJ this year is not as far north as in 2021 at this same point in the calendar year, but it is still north of the long-term average position. The FOX 35 Storm Team says Central Florida is still in the cone of uncertainty the computer models both the European and the American (GFS) are still in disagreement even though we are about four to five days out. Ron DeSantis expanded the declaration of a state of emergency Saturday to include the entire state. These predictions are based on extensive monitoring, analysis, research activities, a suite of statistical prediction tools, and dynamical models. https://t.co/tW4KeFW0gB. [12] Afterward, Fay's remnants were drawn into the circulation of an approaching extratropical storm, before being fully absorbed into the approaching system over Quebec on July 12. After making landfall, the storm quickly lost most of its organization and rapidly transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone over New York on July11, before being absorbed by a larger extratropical low over Quebec on July 12. Here's the latest traffic reports and live views from the state's highways. These patterns are not predictable weeks or months in advance. The CFS has a mixed pattern of predicted shear anomalies, but the MDR spatial average is below normal. Model predictions of various factors known to influence seasonal hurricane activity in the Atlantic region, such as sea surface temperatures (SSTs), vertical wind shear, moisture, and atmospheric stability are still showing some spread for August-October (ASO), the peak months of the hurricane season, and it is unclear as to exactly how conducive these conditions will be for tropical cyclone development. KINGSTON, Jamaica The Meteorological Service of Jamaica (Met Service) has indicated that the Tropical Storm Watch for Jamaica has been lifted. Expect more this hurricane season, Your California Privacy Rights / Privacy Policy, Location: 878 miles southwest of Fort Myers; 200 miles north-northeast of Veracruz, Mexico. Tropical Storm Karl gained strength on Wednesday in the southern Gulf of Mexico. By clicking Sign Up, I confirmthat I have read and agreeto the Privacy Policy and Terms of Service. The Atlantic hurricane region includes the North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. Update 1:34 p.m. EDT Sept. 24: Florida Gov. Get the latest storm information at https://t.co/tW4KeGdBFb pic.twitter.com/QaHIoxDjtT. ', NWS Damage Survey for 07/06/20 Tornado Event, "Event: Tropical Storm in Delaware Beaches (Zone), Delaware", "Event Review: Tropical Storm Fay, July 10 2020", National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, "Tropical Storm Fay leaves downed trees and flooding throughout New Jersey", "Tropical Storm Fay causing flooding at New Jersey shore towns", "Tropical Storm Fay Causes Flooding, Damage Along Delaware's Coast", "Fay a Sign of How Dangerous Tropical Storms Can Be", "Event: Tropical Storm in Western Monmouth County, New Jersey", "Event: Tropical Storm in Eastern Monmount County, New Jersey", "Event: Flash Flood in Stone Harbor, New Jersey", "Event: Flash Flood In Avalon, New Jersey", "Event: Flash Flood in Sea Isle City, New Jersey", "Event: Flash Flood in Rio Grande, New Jersey", "Event: Flash Flood in Mine Hill, New Jersey", "Event: Flash Flood in Point Pleasant, New Jersey", "Event: Flash Flood in Harrisonville, New Jersey", "Event: Flash Flood in Ocean Grove, New Jersey", "Event: Flash Flood in Cumberland County, New Jersey", "Tropical Storm Fay weakens after New Jersey landfall (Update)", "10K Without Power As 73-MPH Winds, Tropical Storm Fay Hit NJ", "Event: Flash Flood in Gloucester City, New Jersey", "Event: Flash Flood in Hoboken, New Jersey", "Event: Flash Flood in Newark, New Jersey", "Event: Flash Flood in New York, New York", "SEE IT: Heavy downpour from Tropical Storm Fay floods Times Square subway station as winds pick up speed", "Body of 18-year-old who died saving 2 friends is recovered off Jersey Shore beach", "Event: Rip Current in Eastern Atlantic (Zone), New Jersey", "Teen who disappeared in rough surf at Jersey Shore presumed dead, cops say", "Swimmer goes missing trying to rescue family members at the Jersey Shore", "Fisherman Finds Body in Inlet 6 Days After Swimmer Went Missing", "Teen drowns, 5 rescued from strong currents in Long Beach", "Tornado Confirmed in Maine as Showers, Storms Fizzle Out and Patchy Fog Develops", "Tropical Storm Fay to bring rain to Maine this weekend, strongest effects to miss us Maine Daily News", "Tropical Storm Fay bringing lots of rain", "Tropical Storm Fay brings strong winds, heavy rain to parts of western Connecticut, but largely misses most of the state", "64-year-old Matthew Smith of Fitchburg identified as victim of drowning off Scarborough Beach in Rhode Island", NHC advisory archive for Tropical Storm Fay, https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Tropical_Storm_Fay_(2020)&oldid=1100035347, Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License 3.0, This page was last edited on 23 July 2022, at 22:26. The AMV is still reflecting a positive/warm state, and those positive/warm conditions are likely to continue through the season, setting a background for generally elevated activity. [61] A 77-year-old swimmer and a 17-year-old swimmer injured from rough surf conditions were also pulled from the ocean at Atlantic City and Raritan Bay, respectively, on July 11, and later died from their injuries. Local leaders are urging residents to prepare, not panic, for a storm that will potentially impact Florida. All rights reserved, DeSantis expanded the declaration of a state of emergency, Atlantic Hurricane Season 2022: NBC 6's Guide for South Florida Residents, Track the Tropics with Radar And Alerts in the NBC 6 App As Hurricane Season Heats Up, Devastated': Mom Says 11-Year-Old Daughter Bullied, Attacked at Margate Middle School, Miss Argentina and Miss Puerto Rico Reveal They Are Secretly Married, Woman Arrested After Multiple Miami School Children Overdose on Marijuana Edibles: Cops, Suspect Arrested in Violent North Lauderdale Robbery of Mom in Front of Kids, Chick-Fil-A Operator Introduced a Three-Day Workweek, and Applications Are Pouring In. While most models show the system moving into Mexico, a couple of models predict the storm will move toward Houston or even New Orleans. This station is part of Cox Media Group Television. This outlook also takes into account uncertainties inherent in such climate outlooks. [27] Many roads in South Carolina were deemed inaccessible and became flooded, while one road became completely washed out. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30. "We will still be seeing impacts of rain as well as some winds," Gargaro said. 14-20 Named Storms, which includes the three recorded storms during June and July, Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) range of 110%-190% of the median, which includes the ACE from the three recorded named storms. Winds at the center of the storm had strengthened to 45 mph in the hurricane centers 5 a.m. advisory. 2022 FOX Television Stations, is in effect, Lake County, Lake County, Seminole County, Seminole County, Volusia County, Volusia County, until SAT 4:00 AM EDT, Coastal Flagler County, from THU 4:00 AM EDT until SAT 4:00 AM EDT, Coastal Volusia County, Florida residents anxious over possible rising flood waters ahead of potential storm next week, Veterans Day 2022: Central Florida parades, activities honoring military veterans, Florida consumer protection team shuts down 19 moving scams, recovering $27 million in fines, restitution, Petito family: New evidence shows Utah officer at domestic violence call was abuser, himself, Murdered Orlando teen involved in human trafficking case was pregnant, deputies say. sea-level pressures have been generally below normal in the Atlantic during the last 45 days. Tropical wave 4:An eastern Caribbean tropical wave stretches from Anguilla south into northeastern Venezuela. Compared to the May outlook, the August update has several very slight decreases in the prediction of overall activity. A hurricane watch is still in effect for the Cayman Islands and a tropical storm watch has been posted for Jamaica. a. Hurricane conditions are expected to reach Grand Cayman by early Monday and the Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the island. El Nio tends to suppress Atlantic hurricane activity, while La Nia tends to enhance it (Gray 1984; Goldenberg and Shapiro 1996). Wea. 1 on Tropical Storm Lisa. J. The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the Small Business Administration, and the American Red Cross all provide important hurricane preparedness information on their web sites. Ian regained strength late Thursday afternoon and became a minimal Category 1 hurricane. Forecasters urge all residents to continuemonitoring the tropics and to always be prepared during what's expected to be an active hurricane season. [25][24] 7.07 inches (179.5mm) of rain fell in 48 hours in Loco. [6] The storm was located over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and in an area of light to moderate wind shear; these environmental factors favored intensification of the tropical cyclone. Potential Storm Fifteen is expected to become a Tropical Storm Lisa later today, and then strengthen to a hurricane later this week as it makes landfall in Belize. 11 p.m. update. Today, I signed an Executive Order issuing a State of Emergency due to the threat of Tropical Depression 9, said Governor Ron DeSantis. The dynamical model average, statistical model average, and the CPC skill-based consolidation are all showing Nio 3.4 index values below the La Nia threshold. Map. These impacts can be strongly modulated by conditions associated with a low- or high-activity era. J. [62] A 24-year-old man went missing while swimming and was presumed dead by authorities in Ocean City, New Jersey. [22] Residents of New York City were advised by New York City Emergency Management to take emergency precautions and to prepare for power outages and locally strong wind gusts. We will continue to update our tropical weather coverage daily. The same watch was also issued for Cuban provinces of La Habana, Mayabeque, and Matanzas. The center of the track has moved slightly to the east and continues to move up through the Florida Panhandle. Additionally, sea-level pressures have been generally below normal in the Atlantic during the last 45 days. The 2022 Atlantic hurricane season is now predicted to produce (with 70% probability for each range) a total of 14-20 named storms (which includes the three named storms to date), of which 6-10 are expected to become hurricanes, with 3-5 of these expected to become major hurricanes. The storm continues to track westward at 16 mph. Tropical Storm Karlis maintaining 45-mph winds as it moves slowly in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, according to the latest advisory from the National Hurricane Center. The range extends from the near-normal category (75-130% of median) into the above-normal category, and even exceeds the threshold for an extremely-active season (>165% of median). Climate, 19, 590-612. Klotzbach, P.J., and W. M. Gray, 2008: Multi-decadal Variability in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity. Three named storms have formed, which is close to average for this point in the season, but the to-date ACE is about 33 percent of normal. Tropical Storm #Ian Advisory 4: Tropical Storm Ian Forms Over the Central Caribbean Sea. This wind pattern reflects weaker easterly winds (i.e., anomalous westerlies) along the equatorward flank of the AEJ axis. Your guide to preparing for the 2022 hurricane season in Florida. [64], In Long Beach, New York, a 19-year-old drowned off the coast, after being caught in rip currents from Fay. [9] Around 20:00UTC on July10, Fay made landfall just north-northeast of Atlantic City, New Jersey with maximum sustained winds of 50mph (85km/h). The Philippines - Earthquake update and Tropical Storm NALGAE (Paeng) (DG ECHO, GDACS, JTWC, PAGASA, DSWD DROMIC, NDRRMC, media) (ECHO Daily Flash of 28 October 2022) Format News and Press Release (Bob D'Angelo/Cox Media Group). Tropical wave 1:A tropical wave over west-central Africa is approaching the coastline of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia. This wave is expected to move overthe Atlantic Ocean Wednesday. A turn toward the north-northwest is expected on Monday followed by a northward motion on Tuesday with a slightly slower forward speed. See the National Hurricane Center's five-day graphical tropical weather outlook below. As of July 18, 2022, the weekly SSTs are currently below average across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, and the SST index for the Nio 3.4 region is -0.7C;. Fay originated from a surface low that formed over the Northern Gulf of Mexico on July 3 and slowly drifted eastward, before crossing over the Florida Panhandle.